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Chapter 2.1 Megatrends of the 4th Industrial

Please read the attached presentation and answer the below two questions. Please ensure the answers are 2-3 paragraphs in length each.


1) What could be the odd sides of bitcoin that can impede the blockchain growth?

2) What are your views about ?designer babies?, in terms of future direction of humanity?

Chapter 2.1


Megatrends of the 4th Industrial Revolution












Chapter 2.1.1


Megatrend: Physical



Autonomous Vehicles


3D Printing


Advanced Robotics


New Materials



Chapter 2.1.1


Autonomous Vehicles





















Chapter 2.1.1


3D Printing


Also known as Additive Manufacturing


- that adds layers upon layers based on a 3D


drawing or model


Opposite of Subtractive Manufacturing


- that removes layers after layers until a desired


shape is obtained


3D printing is limited to


Aerospace Industry


Automotive Industry


Medical Industry


Future Directions: Circuit boards, human cells,





Chapter 2.1.1



4D Process


Creates new generation of self altering products


responding to environmental changes like heat,




Suitable for clothing, footwear, health products i.e.,


implants designed to adapt to human body



Chapter 2.1.1


Advanced Robotics


? Human machine collaboration


? Biomimicry


? Biological complexity being used as template to


design robot?s structural and functional




? Access to information using cloud services with


ability to connect to other robots in the network


? Increasingly pervasive covering a wide range of


activities ranging from critical surgery to


household chores going beyond the previously


limited automotive field.



Chapter 2.1.1


New Materials > Smart Materials


Lighter, stronger, recyclable and adaptive


Self healing self cleaning


Metals with memory and ability to return to


original shapes Ceramics and crystals capable


of turning pressures into energy


Nanomaterial: Graphene, 200 times stronger


than steel, a million time thinner than a


human hair, the costliest material,


micrometer size flake = $ 1000.


Thermoset plastics for reusable material


Regenerative material polyhexahydrotriazines




Promise for circular economy with decoupling


of growth and resource needs



Megatrend: Digital



Chapter 2.1.2



Internet of Things (IoT)




Connectivity between


humans and products,


places and services by


means of technologies and




? Small, cheaper and smarter


sensors are connecting


homes, clothes, cities,


accessories, transport and


energy networks including


manufacturing processing


? Expected to be trillions of


devices being connected by


internet leading to supply



Chapter 2.1.2



Block Chain:


Distributed decentralized ledger


Shared, programmable, cryptographically secure


Remote monitoring by






Everyone can inspect the ledger




A network of computers collectively verifying


RFID tag






The system enables transaction between


Smoothening effect on supply chain


unknown people by passing trust between the


People tracking capability




Example: Bitcoin


Future Applications:


Registrar for birth and death certificates, titles


of ownership, marriage licenses, educational


degree, insurance claims, medical procedures,


votes etc.


Government of Honduras using such technology


for title of ownership



Chapter 2.1.2


Sharing economy (on demand




economy) via use of


Example of multipurpose


technology enabled platform


platform offering services


accessible from smartphones,


ranging from:


lowering barrier for


laundry to shopping


businesses and individuals to


chores to parking


create wealth, altering


home stays to long distance


personal and professional






Multipurpose platforms


establishes matching of


supply and demand at low


cost, interaction between


parties with feedback to


promote trust, availability of


a diverse set of commodities


previously unutilized



Chapter 2.1.2




Uber the largest Taxi Company owns no vehicle


Facebook the most popular media owner


generates no content


Alibaba the most valuable retailer has no




Airbnb world?s largest accommodation provider


owns no real estate


Digital platforms reduce dramatically transaction


and friction costs.


Transactions can be fine increments ensuring


economic gains for all.


Marginal cost of producing additional unit tend to


be zero



Chapter 2.1.3


Megatrend: Biological


Human Genome




At the beginning


Cost: $ 2.7




Time: 10






Cost: <$1000


Time: Few




With genetic






now personalized


healthcare is



Synthetic Biology


Creating new


organism by


writing DNA


Creating crops


capable of




extremes of


temperatures or




Genetic editing


and Targeted


Gene Therapy i.e.







combination: 3D


Printing and


Gene editing


leading to a new


technology called


?Bioprinting? to


produce living


tissues for the


purpose of tissue


repair and


regeneration, i.e.


skin, bone,


vascular tissues,


liver cell layers


for organ





Designer babies


via gene editing


at embryonic




Ethical questions


will be issues






regulations to


such genome


modification and




modified human


creation with


specific traits


and patterns.



Chapter 2.2


Tipping Points



centage of survey respondents who expect the specific tipping point will have occurred by 2025


10% of people wearing clothes connected to the internet








90% or people having unlimited and free (advertisingsupported) storage



91.0 %



1 trillion sensors connected to the internet



89.2 %



The first robotic pharmacist in the US



86.5 %



10% of reading glasses are connected to the internet



85.5 %



80% of the people with a digital presence in the internet



84.4 %



The first 3D printed car in production



84.1 %



The first


to mobile


replace its




with big-data source

















81.7 %





5% of consumer product s printed in 3D



81.1 %



90% of the population using smartphones






Chapter 2.2


Tipping Points



ercentage of survey respondents who expect the specific tipping point will have occurred by 20


90% of people with regular access to the internet








Driverless cars equaling 10% of all cars in US road



78.2 %



The first transplant of a 3D printed liver



76.4 %



30% of corporate audits performed by AI



75.4 %



Tax collected for the first time by a government via a block





73.1 %



Over 50% of internet traffic to homes for appliances and devices 69.9 %


Globally more trips/journeys via car sharing than in private cars



67.2 %



The first


city with


more than


50,000 stored


people and


no traffic






of global






on block









57.9 %



The first AI machine on a corporate board of directors






Shift 8: Internet of and for Things


Tipping point:


1 trillion sensors connected to the Internet.


By 2025:


89% of the survey respondents expected this to




? Continuously increasing computing power and


falling hardware prices are making it possible to


connect intelligent sensors to Internet enabling


greater communication and new data-driven


services based on increased analytics




? In the future, every physical product could be


connected to ubiquitous communication



Shift 8: Internet of and for Things


Positive Impacts:


? Increased efficiency in using




? Rise in productivity


? Improved quality of life


? Effect on the environment


? Lower cost of delivering services


? More transparency around the use


and state of resources


? Safety (e.g. planes, food)


? Efficiency (logistics)


? More demand of storage and




? Shift in labor markets and skills


? Design of products to be ?digitally




? Addition of digital services on top of




? Digital twin provides precise data


for monitoring, controlling and





Positive Impacts ?contd


? Things will be enabled to perceive


their environment comprehensively,


and react and act autonomously


? Generation of additional knowledge,


and value based on connected


?smart? things


Negative Impacts:


? Privacy


? Job losses for unskilled labor


? Hacking, security threat (e.g. utility




? More complexity and loss of control



Shift 8: Internet of and for Things


Unknown, or Cut Both Ways


? Shift in business model: asset rental/usage, not


ownership (appliances as a service)


? Business model impacted by the value of the data


? Every company potentially a software company


? New Business: selling data


? Change in frameworks to think about privacy


? Massively distributed infrastructure for information




? Automation of knowledge work (e.g. analyses,


assessments, diagnose) Consequences of a


potential ?digital Pearl Harbor? (i.e. digital hackers


or terrorists paralyzing infrastructure, leading to no


food, fuel and power for weeks)


? Higher utilization rates (e.g. cars, machines, tools,


equipment, infrastructure)



Shift 8: Internet of and for Things


The Shift in Action


? The Ford GT has 10 million lines of code in




? The new model of the popular VW Golf has


54 computer processing units; as many as


700 data points get processed in the


vehicle, generating six gigabyte of data


per car


? More than 50 billion devices are expected


to be connected to the internet by 2020.


Even the Milky Way contains only around


200 billion suns


? Eaton corporation builds sensors into


certain high-pressure hoses that sense


when the hose is about to fray, preventing


dangerous accidents and saving high costs


of downtime of the machines that have the


hoses as key component.


? Already last year, according to BMW 8% of



Shift 9: The Connected Home


Tipping point:


? Over 50% of internet traffic is delivered to homes for appliances and devices ( not


for entertainment or communication.


? 70% of the survey respondents expected this to have occurred by 2025.


? There is a shift in the use of internet, with more usage for automation and control of


lights, shades, ventilation, air conditioning, audio and video, security systems and


home appliances including use of robots for vacuum cleaning of house.


Positive Impacts:


? Resource efficiency


? Comfort


? Safety, security, and detection of intrusions


? Access control


? Home sharing


? Ability to live independently (young/old, those disabled)


? Increased targeted advertising and overall impact on business


? Reduced costs of healthcare (fewer hospital stays and physician visits, monitoring


medication compliance).


? Monitoring and video recording


? Warning, alarming and emergency requests


? Remote home control.



Shift 9: The Connected Home


Negative Impacts:






Cyber attacks, crime, vulnerability


Unknown, or cut both ways


Impact on workforce


Change in work?s location (more from and outside home)


Privacy, data ownership


The shift in action


Example: The company Nest


This company makes internet connected thermostat and


smoke detector, enabling users to control home temperature


via their cars. This sort of technology will eventually help


home sense what we need, adjusting everything


automatically. In the long run the devices may evolve as


sensors connected to a single hub.



Shift 10: Smart Cities


Tipping point:


? The first city with more than 50,000 inhabitants and no


traffic lights


By 2025:


64% of the survey respondents expected this tipping point to


have occurred.


Smart Cities:


? Services, utilities and roads are connected to the internet


allowing these cities manage energy, material flows,


logistics and traffic. Examples if data driven services


intelligent parking solutions, smart trash collection and


intelligent lighting. Examples are Singapore and Barcelona.


These cities are continuously expanding their network of


sensor technology and working on their data platforms,


which will be the core for connecting the different


technology projects and adding future services based on



Shift 10: Smart Cities


Positive Impacts:


Increased effectiveness in using resources


Rise in productivity


Increased density


Improved quality of life


Effect on the environment


Increased access to resources for the general population


Lower cost of delivering services


More transparency around the use and state of resources


Decreased crime


Increased mobility


Decentralized, climate friendly energy production and




Decentralized production of goods


Increased resilience (to impacts of climate change


Reduced pollution (air, noise)


Increased access to education


Quicker/speed up accessibility to markets


More employment


Smarter e-Government



Shift 10: Smart Cities


Negative Impacts:


Surveillance, privacy


Risk of collapse (total black out) if the energy system




Increased vulnerability to cyber attacks


Unknown, or cut both ways


Impact on city culture and feel


Change of individual habitus of cities


The shift in action


The city of Santander in northern Spain has 20,000


sensors connecting buildings, infrastructure, transport,


networks and utilities. The city offers a physical space for


experimentation and validation of functions, such as


interaction and management protocols, device


technologies, and support services such as discovery


identity management and security.



Shift 11: Big Data for Decisions


Tipping point:


? The first government to replace its census with big


data sources


By 2025:


? 83% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.


Big Data


? More data exists about communities than ever before


and so also the ability to manage this data improving


all the time. Big-data technologies are evolving to


automate their current programs offering governments,


new and innovative ways to service citizens and




? Leveraging big data will allow better and faster


decision-making in a wide range of industries and


applications. Automated decision-making can cut short


delivery time of services by government and



Shift 11: Big Data for Decisions


Positive Impacts:


The Shift in Action


Better and faster decisions


More real-time decision making


Open data innovation


Jobs for lawyer


Reduced complexity and more


efficiency for citizens


Cost savings


New Job categories


Negative Impacts:


Job losses


Privacy concerns


Accountability (Who owns the




Trust (How to trust the data)


Battles over algorithms


Unknown, or Cut Both Ways





? The volume of business data


worldwide, across all companies,


double every 1.2


? Farmers from Iowa to India are using


data from seeds, satellites, sensors


and tractors to make better


decisions about what to grow, when


to plant, how to track food freshness


from farm to fork, and how to adapt


to changing climates


? San Francisco in collaboration with


Yelp has created a web registry to


rate restaurants and give them


score based on their sanitary and


unsanitary practices and alert the


restaurant goers.



Shift 12: Driverless Cars


Tipping point:


? Driverless cars equaling 10% of all cars on the US roads


By 2025:


? 79% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.


Driverless Cars


Trials of driverless cars by Audi, Google etc. are already


taking place with a number of other enterprises ramping


up efforts to develop new solutions. Being potentially


more safe and efficient, these cars can reduce congestion


and emissions and upend the existing models of


transportation and logistics.



Shift 12: Driverless Cars


Positive Impacts:


? Improved safety


? More time for focusing on work


and/or consuming media content


? Effect on the environment


? Less stress and road rage


? Improved mobility of those older and


disabled, among others


? Adoption of the electric vehicles


Negative Impacts:


? Job losses (Taxi and truck drivers,


car industry)


? Upending of insurance and roadside


assistance (?pay more to drive




? Decreased revenue from traffic




? Less car ownership


? Legal structures for driving


? Lobbying against automation


(people not allowed to drive on



The Shift in Action


? In October 2015 Tesla made its cars


that were sold over the last year in


the US semi autonomous cars via a


software update


? Google plans to make autonomous


cars available to the public in 2020


? In the summer of 2015 two hackers


demonstrated their ability to hack


into a moving car, controlling its


dashboard functions, steering,


brakes etc., all through the vehicle?s


entertainment system.


? The first state in the United States


(Nevada) to pass a law allowing


driverless (autonomous) cars did so


in 2012.



Shift 13: Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making


Tipping point:


? The first Artificial Intelligence machine on a corporate


board of directors


By 2025:


? 45% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.


Driverless Cars


Beyond driving, AI can learn from previous simulation to


provide input and automate complex future decision


processes, making it easier and faster to arrive at


concrete conclusions based on data and past





Shift 13: Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making


Positive Impacts:


? Rational data-driven decisions; less




? Removal of ?irrational exuberance?


? Reorganization of outdated




? Job gains and innovation


? Energy independence


? Advances in medical science,


disease eradication


Negative Impacts:


? Accountability (who is responsible,


fiduciary rights, legal)


? Job losses


? Hacking/cybercirme


? Liability and accountability,




? Becoming incomprehensible


? Increased inequality


? ?Falling foul of the algorithm?



The Shift in Action


ConceptNet 4, a language AI, recently


passed IQ test better than most fouryear-olds-three year ago it could


barely compete with a one-year-old.


If Moore?s Law continues to develop


with the same speed as it has been for


the past 30 years, CPUs will reach the


same level of processing power as the


human brain in 2025. Deep Knowledge


Ventures, a Hong Kong based venture


capital fund that invests in life


sciences, cancer research, age related


diseases and regenerative medicine


has appointed an artificial intelligence


algorithm called VITAL (Validating


Investment Tool for Advanced Life


Sciences) to its board o directors.



Shift 14: AI and White Collar Job


Tipping point:


? 30% of corporate audits performed by AI


By 2025:


? 75% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.




AI is good at matching patterns and automating


processes, which makes the technology amenable to


many functions in large organizations. An environment


can be envisioned in the future where AI replaces a range


of functions performed today by people.


An Oxford Martin school study has found that up to 47%


of US jobs in 2010 were highly likely to be computerized


in the next 10-20 years.



Shift 14: AI and White Color Job



Positive Impacts:


Cost reduction


Efficiency gain


Unlocking innovation, opportunities for


small business, start up (smaller


barriers to entry, ?software as


service? for everything.


Negative Impacts:


Job loss


Accountability and liability


Change to legal, financial disclosure,




Job automation



The Shift in Action


Advances in automation were reported




?IBM?s Watson, well known for its


stellar performance in the TV game


show Jeopardy, has demonstrated


more accurate diagnosis rate for lung


cancers than humans ? 90% versus


50% in some tests. The reason is data.


Keeping pace with the release of the


medical data could take doctors 160


hours a week, so doctors can not


possibly review the amount of new


insights or even bodies of clinical


evidence that can give an edge in


making a diagnosis. Surgeons are


using automated systems to aid in low-



Shift 16: Robotics and Services


Tipping point:


? The first robotic pharmacist in US


By 2025:


? 86% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.




Robotics is beginning to influence many jobs, from


manufacturing to agriculture and retail to services.


According to the International Federation of Robotics, the


world now includes 1.1 million working robots, and


machines account for 80% of the wok in manufacturing a


car. Robots are streamlining supply chains to deliver


more efficient and predictable business results.



Shift 15: Robotics and Services



Positive Impacts:


? Supply chain logistics, eliminations


? More leisure time


? Improved health outcomes (big data


for pharmaceutical gains in research


and development)


? Banking ATM as early adopter


? More access to materials


? Production ?re-shoring?(replacing


overseas workers with robotics)


Negative Impacts:


? Job losses


? Liability, accountability


? Day to Day social norms, end of 9-to5 and 24-hour services.


? Hacking and cyber-risk



The Shift in Action


Rethink Robotics released Baxter (in


the fall of 2012) and received an


overwhelming response from the


manufacturing industry, selling out of


their production capacity through




[In April] Rethink launch [ed] Baxter to


do more complex sequencing of tasks ?


for example, picking up a part, holding


in front of an inspection station and


receiving a signal to place it in ?good?


or ?not good? pile. The company also


[released] a software development kit


?.. that will allow third parties ? like


university robotics researchers ? to


create applications for Baxter.?



Shift 16: Bitcoin and the Blockchain


Tipping point:


? 10% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) stored


on the blockchain technology


By 2025:


? 58% of the survey respondents expected this tipping


point to have occurred.




Bitcoin and digital currencies are based on the idea of a


distributed trust mechanism called the ?blockchain?, a


way of keeping track of trusted transactions in a


distributed fashion. Currently, total worth bitcoin in the


block chain is around $20 billion or about 0.025% of


global GDP of around $80 trillion.



Shift 16: Bitcoin and the Blockchain


Positive Impacts:


? Increased financial inclusion in


emerging markets, as financial


services on the blockchain gain


critical mass


? Disintegration of financial


institutions as new services and


value exchanges are created directly


on the blockchain


? An explosion in tradable assets, as


all kinds of value exchange can be


hosted on the blockchain


? Better property records in emerging


markets, and the ability to make


everything a tradable asset


? Contracts and legal services


increasingly tied to code linked to


the blockchain, to be used as


unbreakable escrow or


programmatically designed smart





The Shift in Action provides


programmable contracts that do


payouts between two parties once


certain criteria have been met, without


involving a middleman. These


contracts are secured in the


blockchain as ?self-executing


contractual states?, which eliminate


the risk of relying on others to follow


through on their commitments.




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