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Chapter 2.1 Megatrends of the 4th Industrial
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Please read the attached presentation and answer the below two questions. Please ensure the answers are 2-3 paragraphs in length each.

QUESTIONS:

1) What could be the odd sides of bitcoin that can impede the blockchain growth?

2) What are your views about ?designer babies?, in terms of future direction of humanity?


Chapter 2.1

 

Megatrends of the 4th Industrial Revolution

 


 

Physical

 

Digital

 

Biologica

 

l

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 

Megatrend: Physical

 


 

Autonomous Vehicles

 

3D Printing

 

Advanced Robotics

 

New Materials

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 

Autonomous Vehicles

 

Driverless

 


 

Cars

 


 

Drone

 

s

 


 

Aircraf

 

ts

 


 

Boats

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 

3D Printing

 

Also known as Additive Manufacturing

 

- that adds layers upon layers based on a 3D

 

drawing or model

 

Opposite of Subtractive Manufacturing

 

- that removes layers after layers until a desired

 

shape is obtained

 

3D printing is limited to

 

Aerospace Industry

 

Automotive Industry

 

Medical Industry

 

Future Directions: Circuit boards, human cells,

 

organs

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 


 

4D Process

 

Creates new generation of self altering products

 

responding to environmental changes like heat,

 

humidity.

 

Suitable for clothing, footwear, health products i.e.,

 

implants designed to adapt to human body

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 

Advanced Robotics

 

? Human machine collaboration

 

? Biomimicry

 

? Biological complexity being used as template to

 

design robot?s structural and functional

 

abilities

 

? Access to information using cloud services with

 

ability to connect to other robots in the network

 

? Increasingly pervasive covering a wide range of

 

activities ranging from critical surgery to

 

household chores going beyond the previously

 

limited automotive field.

 


 

Chapter 2.1.1

 

New Materials > Smart Materials

 

Lighter, stronger, recyclable and adaptive

 

Self healing self cleaning

 

Metals with memory and ability to return to

 

original shapes Ceramics and crystals capable

 

of turning pressures into energy

 

Nanomaterial: Graphene, 200 times stronger

 

than steel, a million time thinner than a

 

human hair, the costliest material,

 

micrometer size flake = $ 1000.

 

Thermoset plastics for reusable material

 

Regenerative material polyhexahydrotriazines

 

(PHT):

 

Promise for circular economy with decoupling

 

of growth and resource needs

 


 

Megatrend: Digital

 


 

Chapter 2.1.2

 


 

Internet of Things (IoT)

 

?

 

Connectivity between

 

humans and products,

 

places and services by

 

means of technologies and

 

platforms

 

? Small, cheaper and smarter

 

sensors are connecting

 

homes, clothes, cities,

 

accessories, transport and

 

energy networks including

 

manufacturing processing

 

? Expected to be trillions of

 

devices being connected by

 

internet leading to supply

 


 

Chapter 2.1.2

 


 

Block Chain:

 

Distributed decentralized ledger

 

Shared, programmable, cryptographically secure

 

Remote monitoring by

 

ledger

 

Sensors

 

Everyone can inspect the ledger

 

Transmitters

 

A network of computers collectively verifying

 

RFID tag

 

transactions

 

Benefits:

 

The system enables transaction between

 

Smoothening effect on supply chain

 

unknown people by passing trust between the

 

People tracking capability

 

parties

 

Example: Bitcoin

 

Future Applications:

 

Registrar for birth and death certificates, titles

 

of ownership, marriage licenses, educational

 

degree, insurance claims, medical procedures,

 

votes etc.

 

Government of Honduras using such technology

 

for title of ownership

 


 

Chapter 2.1.2

 

Sharing economy (on demand

 

Uber

 

economy) via use of

 

Example of multipurpose

 

technology enabled platform

 

platform offering services

 

accessible from smartphones,

 

ranging from:

 

lowering barrier for

 

laundry to shopping

 

businesses and individuals to

 

chores to parking

 

create wealth, altering

 

home stays to long distance

 

personal and professional

 

ride

 

environments.

 

Multipurpose platforms

 

establishes matching of

 

supply and demand at low

 

cost, interaction between

 

parties with feedback to

 

promote trust, availability of

 

a diverse set of commodities

 

previously unutilized

 


 

Chapter 2.1.2

 

!

 

Uber the largest Taxi Company owns no vehicle

 

Facebook the most popular media owner

 

generates no content

 

Alibaba the most valuable retailer has no

 

inventory

 

Airbnb world?s largest accommodation provider

 

owns no real estate

 

Digital platforms reduce dramatically transaction

 

and friction costs.

 

Transactions can be fine increments ensuring

 

economic gains for all.

 

Marginal cost of producing additional unit tend to

 

be zero

 


 

Chapter 2.1.3

 

Megatrend: Biological

 

Human Genome

 

Project

 

At the beginning

 

Cost: $ 2.7

 

Billion

 

Time: 10

 

years

 

Now:

 

Cost: <$1000

 

Time: Few

 

hours

 

With genetic

 

makeup

 

determination

 

now personalized

 

healthcare is

 


 

Synthetic Biology

 

Creating new

 

organism by

 

writing DNA

 

Creating crops

 

capable of

 

withstanding

 

extremes of

 

temperatures or

 

drought

 

Genetic editing

 

and Targeted

 

Gene Therapy i.e.

 

CRISPR/Cas9

 


 

Technology

 

combination: 3D

 

Printing and

 

Gene editing

 

leading to a new

 

technology called

 

?Bioprinting? to

 

produce living

 

tissues for the

 

purpose of tissue

 

repair and

 

regeneration, i.e.

 

skin, bone,

 

vascular tissues,

 

liver cell layers

 

for organ

 

transplantation.

 


 

Designer babies

 

via gene editing

 

at embryonic

 

development.

 

Ethical questions

 

will be issues

 

including

 

government

 

regulations to

 

such genome

 

modification and

 

genetically

 

modified human

 

creation with

 

specific traits

 

and patterns.

 


 

Chapter 2.2

 

Tipping Points

 


 

centage of survey respondents who expect the specific tipping point will have occurred by 2025

 

10% of people wearing clothes connected to the internet

 


 

91.2

 

%

 


 

90% or people having unlimited and free (advertisingsupported) storage

 


 

91.0 %

 


 

1 trillion sensors connected to the internet

 


 

89.2 %

 


 

The first robotic pharmacist in the US

 


 

86.5 %

 


 

10% of reading glasses are connected to the internet

 


 

85.5 %

 


 

80% of the people with a digital presence in the internet

 


 

84.4 %

 


 

The first 3D printed car in production

 


 

84.1 %

 


 

The first

 

to mobile

 

replace its

 

census

 

with big-data source

 

The

 

firstgovernment

 

implantable

 

phone

 

available

 

commercially

 


 

82.9

 

81.7 %

 

%

 


 

5% of consumer product s printed in 3D

 


 

81.1 %

 


 

90% of the population using smartphones

 


 

80.7

 


 

Chapter 2.2

 

Tipping Points

 


 

ercentage of survey respondents who expect the specific tipping point will have occurred by 20

 

90% of people with regular access to the internet

 


 

78.8

 

%

 


 

Driverless cars equaling 10% of all cars in US road

 


 

78.2 %

 


 

The first transplant of a 3D printed liver

 


 

76.4 %

 


 

30% of corporate audits performed by AI

 


 

75.4 %

 


 

Tax collected for the first time by a government via a block

 

chain

 


 

73.1 %

 


 

Over 50% of internet traffic to homes for appliances and devices 69.9 %

 

Globally more trips/journeys via car sharing than in private cars

 


 

67.2 %

 


 

The first

 

city with

 

more than

 

50,000 stored

 

people and

 

no traffic

 

lights

 

10%

 

of global

 

domestic

 

product

 

on block

 

chain

 

technology

 


 

63.7

 

57.9 %

 


 

The first AI machine on a corporate board of directors

 


 

45.2

 


 

Shift 8: Internet of and for Things

 

Tipping point:

 

1 trillion sensors connected to the Internet.

 

By 2025:

 

89% of the survey respondents expected this to

 

occurred.

 

? Continuously increasing computing power and

 

falling hardware prices are making it possible to

 

connect intelligent sensors to Internet enabling

 

greater communication and new data-driven

 

services based on increased analytics

 

capabilities.

 

? In the future, every physical product could be

 

connected to ubiquitous communication

 


 

Shift 8: Internet of and for Things

 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Increased efficiency in using

 

resources

 

? Rise in productivity

 

? Improved quality of life

 

? Effect on the environment

 

? Lower cost of delivering services

 

? More transparency around the use

 

and state of resources

 

? Safety (e.g. planes, food)

 

? Efficiency (logistics)

 

? More demand of storage and

 

bandwidth

 

? Shift in labor markets and skills

 

? Design of products to be ?digitally

 

connectable?.

 

? Addition of digital services on top of

 

products

 

? Digital twin provides precise data

 

for monitoring, controlling and

 

predicting

 


 

Positive Impacts ?contd

 

? Things will be enabled to perceive

 

their environment comprehensively,

 

and react and act autonomously

 

? Generation of additional knowledge,

 

and value based on connected

 

?smart? things

 

Negative Impacts:

 

? Privacy

 

? Job losses for unskilled labor

 

? Hacking, security threat (e.g. utility

 

grid)

 

? More complexity and loss of control

 


 

Shift 8: Internet of and for Things

 

Unknown, or Cut Both Ways

 

? Shift in business model: asset rental/usage, not

 

ownership (appliances as a service)

 

? Business model impacted by the value of the data

 

? Every company potentially a software company

 

? New Business: selling data

 

? Change in frameworks to think about privacy

 

? Massively distributed infrastructure for information

 

technology

 

? Automation of knowledge work (e.g. analyses,

 

assessments, diagnose) Consequences of a

 

potential ?digital Pearl Harbor? (i.e. digital hackers

 

or terrorists paralyzing infrastructure, leading to no

 

food, fuel and power for weeks)

 

? Higher utilization rates (e.g. cars, machines, tools,

 

equipment, infrastructure)

 


 

Shift 8: Internet of and for Things

 

The Shift in Action

 

? The Ford GT has 10 million lines of code in

 

it.

 

? The new model of the popular VW Golf has

 

54 computer processing units; as many as

 

700 data points get processed in the

 

vehicle, generating six gigabyte of data

 

per car

 

? More than 50 billion devices are expected

 

to be connected to the internet by 2020.

 

Even the Milky Way contains only around

 

200 billion suns

 

? Eaton corporation builds sensors into

 

certain high-pressure hoses that sense

 

when the hose is about to fray, preventing

 

dangerous accidents and saving high costs

 

of downtime of the machines that have the

 

hoses as key component.

 

? Already last year, according to BMW 8% of

 


 

Shift 9: The Connected Home

 

Tipping point:

 

? Over 50% of internet traffic is delivered to homes for appliances and devices ( not

 

for entertainment or communication.

 

? 70% of the survey respondents expected this to have occurred by 2025.

 

? There is a shift in the use of internet, with more usage for automation and control of

 

lights, shades, ventilation, air conditioning, audio and video, security systems and

 

home appliances including use of robots for vacuum cleaning of house.

 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Resource efficiency

 

? Comfort

 

? Safety, security, and detection of intrusions

 

? Access control

 

? Home sharing

 

? Ability to live independently (young/old, those disabled)

 

? Increased targeted advertising and overall impact on business

 

? Reduced costs of healthcare (fewer hospital stays and physician visits, monitoring

 

medication compliance).

 

? Monitoring and video recording

 

? Warning, alarming and emergency requests

 

? Remote home control.

 


 

Shift 9: The Connected Home

 

Negative Impacts:

 

Privacy

 

Surveillance

 

Cyber attacks, crime, vulnerability

 

Unknown, or cut both ways

 

Impact on workforce

 

Change in work?s location (more from and outside home)

 

Privacy, data ownership

 

The shift in action

 

Example: The company Nest

 

This company makes internet connected thermostat and

 

smoke detector, enabling users to control home temperature

 

via their cars. This sort of technology will eventually help

 

home sense what we need, adjusting everything

 

automatically. In the long run the devices may evolve as

 

sensors connected to a single hub.

 


 

Shift 10: Smart Cities

 

Tipping point:

 

? The first city with more than 50,000 inhabitants and no

 

traffic lights

 

By 2025:

 

64% of the survey respondents expected this tipping point to

 

have occurred.

 

Smart Cities:

 

? Services, utilities and roads are connected to the internet

 

allowing these cities manage energy, material flows,

 

logistics and traffic. Examples if data driven services

 

intelligent parking solutions, smart trash collection and

 

intelligent lighting. Examples are Singapore and Barcelona.

 

These cities are continuously expanding their network of

 

sensor technology and working on their data platforms,

 

which will be the core for connecting the different

 

technology projects and adding future services based on

 


 

Shift 10: Smart Cities

 

Positive Impacts:

 

Increased effectiveness in using resources

 

Rise in productivity

 

Increased density

 

Improved quality of life

 

Effect on the environment

 

Increased access to resources for the general population

 

Lower cost of delivering services

 

More transparency around the use and state of resources

 

Decreased crime

 

Increased mobility

 

Decentralized, climate friendly energy production and

 

consumption

 

Decentralized production of goods

 

Increased resilience (to impacts of climate change

 

Reduced pollution (air, noise)

 

Increased access to education

 

Quicker/speed up accessibility to markets

 

More employment

 

Smarter e-Government

 


 

Shift 10: Smart Cities

 

Negative Impacts:

 

Surveillance, privacy

 

Risk of collapse (total black out) if the energy system

 

fails

 

Increased vulnerability to cyber attacks

 

Unknown, or cut both ways

 

Impact on city culture and feel

 

Change of individual habitus of cities

 

The shift in action

 

The city of Santander in northern Spain has 20,000

 

sensors connecting buildings, infrastructure, transport,

 

networks and utilities. The city offers a physical space for

 

experimentation and validation of functions, such as

 

interaction and management protocols, device

 

technologies, and support services such as discovery

 

identity management and security.

 


 

Shift 11: Big Data for Decisions

 

Tipping point:

 

? The first government to replace its census with big

 

data sources

 

By 2025:

 

? 83% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

Big Data

 

? More data exists about communities than ever before

 

and so also the ability to manage this data improving

 

all the time. Big-data technologies are evolving to

 

automate their current programs offering governments,

 

new and innovative ways to service citizens and

 

customers.

 

? Leveraging big data will allow better and faster

 

decision-making in a wide range of industries and

 

applications. Automated decision-making can cut short

 

delivery time of services by government and

 


 

Shift 11: Big Data for Decisions

 

Positive Impacts:

 

The Shift in Action

 

Better and faster decisions

 

More real-time decision making

 

Open data innovation

 

Jobs for lawyer

 

Reduced complexity and more

 

efficiency for citizens

 

Cost savings

 

New Job categories

 

Negative Impacts:

 

Job losses

 

Privacy concerns

 

Accountability (Who owns the

 

algorithm

 

Trust (How to trust the data)

 

Battles over algorithms

 

Unknown, or Cut Both Ways

 

Profiling

 


 

? The volume of business data

 

worldwide, across all companies,

 

double every 1.2

 

? Farmers from Iowa to India are using

 

data from seeds, satellites, sensors

 

and tractors to make better

 

decisions about what to grow, when

 

to plant, how to track food freshness

 

from farm to fork, and how to adapt

 

to changing climates

 

? San Francisco in collaboration with

 

Yelp has created a web registry to

 

rate restaurants and give them

 

score based on their sanitary and

 

unsanitary practices and alert the

 

restaurant goers.

 


 

Shift 12: Driverless Cars

 

Tipping point:

 

? Driverless cars equaling 10% of all cars on the US roads

 

By 2025:

 

? 79% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

Driverless Cars

 

Trials of driverless cars by Audi, Google etc. are already

 

taking place with a number of other enterprises ramping

 

up efforts to develop new solutions. Being potentially

 

more safe and efficient, these cars can reduce congestion

 

and emissions and upend the existing models of

 

transportation and logistics.

 


 

Shift 12: Driverless Cars

 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Improved safety

 

? More time for focusing on work

 

and/or consuming media content

 

? Effect on the environment

 

? Less stress and road rage

 

? Improved mobility of those older and

 

disabled, among others

 

? Adoption of the electric vehicles

 

Negative Impacts:

 

? Job losses (Taxi and truck drivers,

 

car industry)

 

? Upending of insurance and roadside

 

assistance (?pay more to drive

 

yourself)

 

? Decreased revenue from traffic

 

infringements

 

? Less car ownership

 

? Legal structures for driving

 

? Lobbying against automation

 

(people not allowed to drive on

 


 

The Shift in Action

 

? In October 2015 Tesla made its cars

 

that were sold over the last year in

 

the US semi autonomous cars via a

 

software update

 

? Google plans to make autonomous

 

cars available to the public in 2020

 

? In the summer of 2015 two hackers

 

demonstrated their ability to hack

 

into a moving car, controlling its

 

dashboard functions, steering,

 

brakes etc., all through the vehicle?s

 

entertainment system.

 

? The first state in the United States

 

(Nevada) to pass a law allowing

 

driverless (autonomous) cars did so

 

in 2012.

 


 

Shift 13: Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making

 

Tipping point:

 

? The first Artificial Intelligence machine on a corporate

 

board of directors

 

By 2025:

 

? 45% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

Driverless Cars

 

Beyond driving, AI can learn from previous simulation to

 

provide input and automate complex future decision

 

processes, making it easier and faster to arrive at

 

concrete conclusions based on data and past

 

experiences.

 


 

Shift 13: Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making

 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Rational data-driven decisions; less

 

bias

 

? Removal of ?irrational exuberance?

 

? Reorganization of outdated

 

bureaucracies

 

? Job gains and innovation

 

? Energy independence

 

? Advances in medical science,

 

disease eradication

 

Negative Impacts:

 

? Accountability (who is responsible,

 

fiduciary rights, legal)

 

? Job losses

 

? Hacking/cybercirme

 

? Liability and accountability,

 

governance

 

? Becoming incomprehensible

 

? Increased inequality

 

? ?Falling foul of the algorithm?

 


 

The Shift in Action

 

ConceptNet 4, a language AI, recently

 

passed IQ test better than most fouryear-olds-three year ago it could

 

barely compete with a one-year-old.

 

If Moore?s Law continues to develop

 

with the same speed as it has been for

 

the past 30 years, CPUs will reach the

 

same level of processing power as the

 

human brain in 2025. Deep Knowledge

 

Ventures, a Hong Kong based venture

 

capital fund that invests in life

 

sciences, cancer research, age related

 

diseases and regenerative medicine

 

has appointed an artificial intelligence

 

algorithm called VITAL (Validating

 

Investment Tool for Advanced Life

 

Sciences) to its board o directors.

 


 

Shift 14: AI and White Collar Job

 

Tipping point:

 

? 30% of corporate audits performed by AI

 

By 2025:

 

? 75% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

AI

 

AI is good at matching patterns and automating

 

processes, which makes the technology amenable to

 

many functions in large organizations. An environment

 

can be envisioned in the future where AI replaces a range

 

of functions performed today by people.

 

An Oxford Martin school study has found that up to 47%

 

of US jobs in 2010 were highly likely to be computerized

 

in the next 10-20 years.

 


 

Shift 14: AI and White Color Job

 


 

Positive Impacts:

 

Cost reduction

 

Efficiency gain

 

Unlocking innovation, opportunities for

 

small business, start up (smaller

 

barriers to entry, ?software as

 

service? for everything.

 

Negative Impacts:

 

Job loss

 

Accountability and liability

 

Change to legal, financial disclosure,

 

risk

 

Job automation

 


 

The Shift in Action

 

Advances in automation were reported

 

in FORTUNE:

 

?IBM?s Watson, well known for its

 

stellar performance in the TV game

 

show Jeopardy, has demonstrated

 

more accurate diagnosis rate for lung

 

cancers than humans ? 90% versus

 

50% in some tests. The reason is data.

 

Keeping pace with the release of the

 

medical data could take doctors 160

 

hours a week, so doctors can not

 

possibly review the amount of new

 

insights or even bodies of clinical

 

evidence that can give an edge in

 

making a diagnosis. Surgeons are

 

using automated systems to aid in low-

 


 

Shift 16: Robotics and Services

 

Tipping point:

 

? The first robotic pharmacist in US

 

By 2025:

 

? 86% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

Robotics

 

Robotics is beginning to influence many jobs, from

 

manufacturing to agriculture and retail to services.

 

According to the International Federation of Robotics, the

 

world now includes 1.1 million working robots, and

 

machines account for 80% of the wok in manufacturing a

 

car. Robots are streamlining supply chains to deliver

 

more efficient and predictable business results.

 


 

Shift 15: Robotics and Services

 


 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Supply chain logistics, eliminations

 

? More leisure time

 

? Improved health outcomes (big data

 

for pharmaceutical gains in research

 

and development)

 

? Banking ATM as early adopter

 

? More access to materials

 

? Production ?re-shoring?(replacing

 

overseas workers with robotics)

 

Negative Impacts:

 

? Job losses

 

? Liability, accountability

 

? Day to Day social norms, end of 9-to5 and 24-hour services.

 

? Hacking and cyber-risk

 


 

The Shift in Action

 

Rethink Robotics released Baxter (in

 

the fall of 2012) and received an

 

overwhelming response from the

 

manufacturing industry, selling out of

 

their production capacity through

 

April?

 

[In April] Rethink launch [ed] Baxter to

 

do more complex sequencing of tasks ?

 

for example, picking up a part, holding

 

in front of an inspection station and

 

receiving a signal to place it in ?good?

 

or ?not good? pile. The company also

 

[released] a software development kit

 

?.. that will allow third parties ? like

 

university robotics researchers ? to

 

create applications for Baxter.?

 


 

Shift 16: Bitcoin and the Blockchain

 

Tipping point:

 

? 10% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) stored

 

on the blockchain technology

 

By 2025:

 

? 58% of the survey respondents expected this tipping

 

point to have occurred.

 

Robotics

 

Bitcoin and digital currencies are based on the idea of a

 

distributed trust mechanism called the ?blockchain?, a

 

way of keeping track of trusted transactions in a

 

distributed fashion. Currently, total worth bitcoin in the

 

block chain is around $20 billion or about 0.025% of

 

global GDP of around $80 trillion.

 


 

Shift 16: Bitcoin and the Blockchain

 

Positive Impacts:

 

? Increased financial inclusion in

 

emerging markets, as financial

 

services on the blockchain gain

 

critical mass

 

? Disintegration of financial

 

institutions as new services and

 

value exchanges are created directly

 

on the blockchain

 

? An explosion in tradable assets, as

 

all kinds of value exchange can be

 

hosted on the blockchain

 

? Better property records in emerging

 

markets, and the ability to make

 

everything a tradable asset

 

? Contracts and legal services

 

increasingly tied to code linked to

 

the blockchain, to be used as

 

unbreakable escrow or

 

programmatically designed smart

 

contracts

 


 

The Shift in Action

 

Smartcontracts.com provides

 

programmable contracts that do

 

payouts between two parties once

 

certain criteria have been met, without

 

involving a middleman. These

 

contracts are secured in the

 

blockchain as ?self-executing

 

contractual states?, which eliminate

 

the risk of relying on others to follow

 

through on their commitments.

 


 

 







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